Represent competing incident hypotheses explicitly
A latency spike follows a deployment but also overlaps a dependency outage.
- Focused work estimate
- 2h 30m + prerequisites
- Priority in the scenario
- Medium
- Engineering practice
- Incident reasoning · Uncertainty
Estimated field mix
- Site reliability60%
- Applied AI40%
Field percentages are editorial estimates of the ticket's engineering focus. They total 100%; they are not measured time, proficiency scores, or ownership evidence.
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Project context
A fictional on-call team wants an assistant that joins alerts, deployment notes, and runbooks. Incomplete telemetry and hostile log content make unsupported conclusions dangerous.
Setup prerequisites
- Author synthetic alerts, deployment records, and runbooks plus deterministic tool and model doubles.
Preceding work
Complete these dependencies, or supply their agreed outputs before taking this ticket.
Acceptance criteria
- List supporting and contradicting observations per hypothesis.
- Avoid declaring causation from timing alone.
- Identify a bounded next observation for discrimination.
Implementation constraints
- Recommendations remain read-only diagnostic suggestions.
Verification to include
- Represent two plausible causes.
- Keep a hypothesis unresolved when discriminating telemetry is absent.
Deliverables
- Hypothesis draft format.
Rollout and recovery
Require operator review before acting on a hypothesis.
Value of the work
For the engineer: Practice constrained tool use, operational uncertainty, and traceable AI outputs.
For the team: Produce concise incident drafts that preserve source traceability and operator control.
Evidence boundaries
Outcome Evidence: Tests, patches, and runbooks are requested deliverables. They become Outcome Evidence only through a qualified Mission and immutable Evidence IDs.
Ownership Evidence: Independent adaptation must be observed under a declared verification policy and cite immutable Evidence IDs. Completing a planning ticket establishes no Ownership Evidence.